Hitting a homer for climate
In the spring of 2000, the big issue in the sports pages was the explosion of home runs in Major League Baseball. Pundits blamed everything from stronger batters, improved coaching, diluted pitching staffs to smaller ballpark. There was even some absurd theory about the commissioner's signature on the latest batch of baseballs provided extra focus for batters.Flipping through the box scores after a cold afternoon windsurfing on Lake Mendota, I dreamt up an even goofier theory. Perhaps the increase in home runs was due to global warming - the warm spring and summer air in recent years could have provided a little extra lift, pushing some warning track fly balls over the fence. On a whim, I called an editor at Sports Illustrated and suggested that maybe baseball fans searching for an answer should switch from CNN/SI to the Weather Channel.
This was my pitch:
"Basic physics dictates that a ball should travel further on a warm day. The U.S. climate has warmed 1 degree Farenheit since the mid-1970s, a Ruth-ian leap by climatic standards. At the same time, the number of home runs hit per game (per team) increased rapidly, from 0.73 in the 1970s, to 0.82 in the 1980s to 0.97 in the 1990s.
Not only was 1998 a record-breaking year for Mark McGwire, it was also the warmest year since records began 1895. During September 1998, when McGwire clubbed 15 home runs en route to 70, the U.S. was 4.3 F warmer than normal. Last year, the second-warmest in recorded history, saw a record 1.14 home runs hit per game.
And when the weather has turned cold, so have the batters. The summer of 1992 was one of the coldest on record, due to the impact of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on the global climate. Major league hitters managed only 0.72 home runs per game, the lowest average in twenty years.
So, yes, major league pitchers need to recapture the inside of the plate. But they may also want to trade their SUVs for electric cars."
The story was intended as a joke; the climate would have to warm a lot more to have a major impact on the path of a fly ball. But the idea was so bizarre and the correlation was so strong that my pitch caught the editor's attention.
I was absolutely stunned. A major sports publication actually agreed to write something about climate change merely based on the ramblings of a graduate student with mild hypothermia. So stunned that when the editor insisted on having a staff person write the piece, I stupidly agreed to only serve as a source.
A short blurb entitled "Hot Air, Hot bats" describing the link between global warming and home run hitting was published in the Scorecard section of the May 15, 2000 issue of Sports Illustrated. My name appeared nowhere in the magazine.
Over the following week, the idea the global warming may be influencing baseball popped up throughout the media. The night after the magazine appeared on the shelves, an anchor on ESPN Sportscenter, listed global warming as a possible explanation the increase in home runs. Two days later, Dan Rather led off a CBS Evening News story about baseball with the mention of evidence linking home runs to a warming climate.
Coincidence? While I would have liked some sort of recognition, just a quick nod that the mop-haired Canuck still suffering from poor blood flow to his fingers was the original source of the idea, it was nice to be reminded that anyone's ideas can filter out into public consciousness.